The latest official release, the UK House Price Index for June 2026, was published jointly by HM Land Registry and the ONS on 21 October 2026 and has been revised downward. According to the UK House Price Index, the average UK property price in June 2026 was £270,690.
Against June’s revised Land Registry annual house price growth of 1.5%, UK house prices fell about 1.1% in real terms in the year to June. The real decline has since grown because CPI rose to 3.5% in September, while house price growth slowed further.
London flat prices are down more than 5% annually in real terms; the ongoing weakness at the Capital continues.
The forward indicators are softer than the lagging ones
Lloyds and Nationwide figures, both based on approvals, are weaker than the Land Registry, which records completed sales. This suggests prices will continue to weaken into the next quarter. Or there is no sign of a strong bounce in the second half of the year. Besides, revisions keep going down. June and July were both cut after first publication, so the provisional figures are flattering.
Why the price levels don’t compare. Lloyds puts the average at £298,441, while the Land Registry reports £270,690, a gap of about 10%. That gap is about method, not a disagreement on value. Lloyds uses only mortgage approvals, adjusted for mix and seasonality. Land Registry uses all completed sales, including cash buyers, and isn’t seasonally adjusted. Lloyds is also a leading indicator. Approvals happen about 2–3 months before completion, so Lloyds’ September reading roughly maps to Land Registry’s November or December completions.
Estimate for the next few releases
- Land Registry’s average stays roughly between £270k and £274k through autumn, with the usual seasonal dip in winter.
- Its annual rate holds near 1% in the September print, then eases towards 0–0.5% by the turn of the year, as Lloyds’ weakness feeds through to completions.
- Nationwide supports this. Its annual growth halved to 0.8% in September from 1.6% in August, with prices down 0.2% on the month.
- The weakness is uneven. London was still down 2.2% year on year in August, and London flats were down 5.0%. The North East and North West are still growing.
3rd quarter figures will be released on the 18th of November. We will release a comprehensive yearly outlook in the second half of November.